Crime in America has been declining for decades, but that’s not what most Americans believe. While the data shows that police-reported crimes have fallen significantly since the early 2000s, Americans are more likely than not to believe crime has increased in their communities.
A new survey of 1,500 randomly selected American adults conducted by Angus Reid USA explores this phenomenon. The data suggests that a booming scam and fraud industry may be partially to blame.
The Lawless Illusion
In spring 2023, we enter a newly post-pandemic America. Despite spikes in homicide and assault rates in the first quarter of 2021, homicide rates throughout the pandemic remained just over half what they were across 34 U.S. cities 25 years ago.
There were half as many property crimes per capita as in 2002, and violent crime per capita decreased by 42%. Despite the evidence, Americans today are four times as likely (39%) to believe that crime is increasing in their community, while only 10% believe crime has declined.
These results demonstrate the percentage of people who believe there has been an uptick in each type of crime:
Among those who believe crime is increasing, the most common factors driving their beliefs are drug use and addiction (72%), poverty (63%), the high cost of living (63%), drug tracking (59%), and a justice system they describe as “too lenient” (58%).
Less common factors included easy access to firearms, the increased scrutiny on police, and the lack of police resources, although at least one-third in each of those cases believe them to be a major factor.
Partners in Crime
As with many issues facing America, there is a correlation between political affiliation and the factors people believe are driving the perceived rise in crime. Kamala Harris 2024 voters are more likely to believe the root causes of increasing crime are poverty, the high cost of living, the lack of support for those with addictions and mental illnesses, and the widespread prevalence of firearms.
By contrast, MAGA 2024 voters are more likely to point to a justice system they describe as lenient (68%). This belief is shared by 48% of Harris voters.
Despite these strongly-held beliefs among some Americans, police-reported crimes have fallen drastically in recent years. However, one area of crime is flourishing: the fraud industry.
Scams Skyrocket
Americans are increasingly vulnerable to fraud, as scams become more insidious and advanced, aided by tools such as artificial intelligence. The Federal Trade Commission reported that American consumers lost $12.5 billion to fraud in 2024, a 25% increase from 2023 data.
Three-quarters of Americans say they have been targeted by what they believe is a scam either via email (77%) or over the phone (72%). Nearly one-third say they’ve lost money or personal information to fraud or know someone who has. This is reported more among older Americans than among younger ones.
The opposite is true when we look at police-reported crimes. About 13% of Americans say they were victims of such a crime in the past two years, but younger Americans are more likely to say they have been victims. These findings were especially true among women.
In Justice We Trust?
The survey also examined Americans’ confidence in various aspects of the justice system. Out of all the institutions listed, Americans expressed the most trust in the police. Here’s what opinions revealed:
Once again, political affiliation carried correlative weight in Americans’ views of the justice system. Those who voted MAGA 2024 are more confident than those who voted for Harris in all elements of the justice system listed. Only one-in-five Harris voters have confidence in the FBI, while even fewer in that group express confidence in ICE (6%) or the Supreme Court (11%).
What’s clear from the data is that political affiliation is fairly indicative—and divisive—of the issues driving Americans’ perception of rising crime. While the evidence contradicts that belief, it could suggest a link between increased personal experience with scams and the perception that crime is rising in general.
To fully decipher that connection, we need to do another survey.
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